Overview: Scotch whisky chiefs breathed a sigh of relief when President Donald Trump removed the 10% tariff on exports to the US market last week. Despite this breakthrough, industry leaders express caution regarding the long-term stability of the deal following a challenging period marked by reduced demand and production cuts.
The Full Story
The demise of the 10% tariff was a much-needed breakthrough for an industry that has been buffeted by global headwinds and paid a heavy financial price since the import barrier was put in place in April last year. Figures released by the Scotch Whisky Association in February underlined the dilemma. Analysis by the SWA of data from HMRC showed that the value of exports to the US tumbled by 4% to £933 million in 2025, with export volumes plunging by 9.2% on the previous year to the equivalent of 120 million bottles.
The imposition of tariffs has been a major fly in the ointment for Scotch whisky distillers since they were announced by President Trump on America’s self-styled “Liberation Day” in April last year. It contributed to the host of geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges that have made life difficult for distillers in key markets since a Covid-era spike in demand began to fade and has been cited by many in the industry as they have moved into self-preservation mode. Expansion plans have been shelved; jobs have been cut and at some distilleries production has been cut back to account for reduced demand.
Brand & Industry History
First Minister John Swinney secured a meeting with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office during September, during which he pressed home the case for a tariff cut. The coup de grace was then delivered during a state visit by King Charles and Queen Camilla at the end of April, a display of soft power that finally seemed to convince Mr Trump to end the tariffs on Scotch whisky. Supporters of the SNP have argued that Mr Swinney’s intervention was crucial, while those of a Unionist persuasion have said it was down to the efforts of the UK Government. In all likelihood it was a multi-pronged approach which won the day and that would assuredly have involved the lobbying efforts of the SWA in association with its counterparts in the US whiskey sector.
What This Means
William Wemyss, co-founder of Wemyss Family Spirits, owner of the Kingsbarns Distillery in Fife, gave a cautious response when asked whether the removal of tariffs would give distillers the confidence to invest and move forward with expansion plans in the US. “It will certainly improve confidence, although the benefits won’t happen overnight,” he said. “Whisky is a long-term industry, with investment decisions made years in advance.” Removing tariffs gives distillers and importers greater certainty to invest in new products, partnerships and market expansion, which is exactly what’s needed. However, the President has long believed in tariffs as a means to boost the US economy. It is highly likely they will remain in his arsenal for as long as he remains in office.
Consumer Takeaway
The removal of tariffs for the time being is a step in the right direction for consumers seeking access to Scotch whisky in the US market. While immediate expansion plans may not resume overnight, the sector has moved into self-preservation mode following 16 months in this crucial overseas market. Distillers and importers now have greater certainty to invest in new products and partnerships, which is exactly what’s needed to stabilize the industry for the drinker.
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