Overview: The US spirits industry has been experiencing a tough market, but recent forecasts suggest that conditions may finally begin to stabilize over the coming year.
The Full Story
The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America (WSWA) released its latest data tracker, which indicates that core spirits depletions fell 4.19% in the first quarter of 2026 on a rolling 12-month basis. This decline is expected to improve to -3.91% in the fourth quarter and -3.68% by Q2 of next year.
According to WSWA president and CEO Francis Creighton, while the spirits market continues to be challenging, conditions may finally begin to stabilize over the coming year albeit remaining in negative territory. This stabilization is attributed to several key categories that are expected to outperform others in the industry.
Production & Profile
The core spirits category, excluding RTDs, will continue to operate in negative territory due to ongoing market challenges. However, agave spirits such as Tequila and other agave brands are forecasted to stabilize after a sharp slowdown in early 2026. These mid-priced brands have seen increased demand.
On the other hand, Vodka is projected to outpace its competitors like rum, Irish whiskey, and brandy/Cognac due to labels priced in the “affordable luxury” segment. American whiskies are also expected to show gradual improvement over time. These trends indicate a stabilization of sorts within specific segments.
Brand & Industry History
The US spirits industry has experienced fluctuations throughout its history, influenced by various factors including economic conditions and consumer preferences.
The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America was founded in 1935 with the aim to promote fair and competitive practices within the wholesale liquor business. Since then, WSWA has played a crucial role in fostering industry growth through legislative advocacy.
What This Means
The stabilization forecast for certain segments highlights an ongoing shift towards more affordable luxury products. The demand for premium spirits continues to be strong but tempered by consumers’ economic uncertainty and cautious spending habits.
This market trend suggests producers may need to reassess their pricing strategies, product offerings, or marketing approaches in the coming year. Stabilization can also signal a potential turning point for segments previously facing significant decline.
Consumer Takeaway
To navigate this changing landscape effectively, consumers should be aware of shifting trends and consider upgrading to mid-priced Tequila brands after experiencing sharp declines early on. For those looking at premium vodka or whiskies, the improved forecast may lead them to purchase in greater quantities.
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