Overview: The U.S. wine market is expected to decrease for the sixth straight year in 2026, according to the current edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast. Total industry depletions will fall below 300 million cases by year-end, marking the first time they’ve been below that level in 20 years.
The Full Story
But after a projected 3.6% drop this year, the rate of decline is expected to slow to under 2% annually, on average, between 2026 and 2030―according to the 254-page Impact Databank report—due in large part to continued gains from the wine-based cocktail sector. By the end of the decade, wine RTDs are forecasted to account for nearly 11% of total wine volume, up from just 6% share last year.
Wine-based cocktails are resonating with younger drinkers, and their innovative flavors and convenient, smaller packaging are bringing new consumers into the wine category. Some of the recent offerings also contain little or no sugar to appeal to health-conscious drinkers.
What This Means
Continued innovation will be key to keep up with larger, spirits-based RTDs in the single-serve cocktail-style beverage space. While Anheuser-Busch is already a major player in the spirits RTD arena―aside from its dominance in beer―its acquisition of number-one wine-based cocktail Beatbox late last year made it the fifth-largest-selling wine marketer in the U.S. in terms of total volume, according to Impact Databank. Beatbox is also available in a malt-based version, which brought its overall volume to 7.6 million cases in the U.S. in 2025.
With wine-based Chillers combined with spirits-based offerings, Sazerac’s Buzzballz cocktails are closing in on Beatbox, continuing to register strong double-digit gains in 2026. Beyond the top five, other fast-growing wine-based cocktails this year include two brands from Gallo—Vibe and Beach Juice—Trinchero’s Atomic Boss, and The Wine Group’s Fuel by Franzia, as well as the wine-based version of Molson Coors’ Monaco RTDs.
Consumer Takeaway
For the drinker, this market shift offers convenient, smaller packaging options that appeal to health-conscious consumers seeking little or no sugar. The top five brands include Beatbox from Anheuser-Busch with 6.73 million cases in 2025, Sazerac’s Buzzballz at 2.25 million cases, and Patco Brands’ Rancho La Gloria and Big Sipz rounding out the list with specific volume metrics available for comparison.
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